THE NATIONAL READINESS INDEX / RESEARCH STANDARD
A reproducible scoring specification, a clear record of source dates, and a publication gate that cannot be bypassed with an illustrative number.
← Return to the National Readiness IndexVersion 1.0.0-candidate.1 · Candidate methodology. Prepared November 11, 2026. Research approval and sufficient verified evidence are required before the first national score.
The index is an institutional preparedness benchmark. It is not a probability, a federal safety standard, or a guarantee of resilience. The United States scope generally covers the 50 states and District of Columbia; some indicators use expressly disclosed survey populations or global proxies. Territories are not silently treated as covered.
Each indicator is normalized to a 0–100 scale. Higher always means stronger readiness. Bounds below are Sky Fall Institute policy anchors unless a documented source explicitly specifies otherwise; they are not empirically validated crisis-survival thresholds.
Indicator score = clamp(100 × (value − worst) ÷ (best − worst), 0, 100)
Category score = sum(indicator score × within-category weight)
National score = sum(category score × category weight)
The ten national category weights total 100%. All indicators within a category have equal weight. Full precision is used until the final result is rounded to one decimal place. Weekly change is the difference between unrounded national scores, rounded to one decimal percentage point, so it may differ slightly from subtracting the two displayed scores.
All 40 indicators must have verified, fresh, sufficiently representative evidence. Missing values are not replaced by zero, carried beyond their freshness limit, or imputed. Category weights are not redistributed. Methodology approval and a named editorial review are separate gates.
Research sources can have annual, monthly, weekly, or event-driven releases. Every approved observation retains its reference period, source publication date, retrieval date, evidence checksum, definition, and review. The weekly report date is a calculation/reporting date, not the measurement date of every input.
Wednesday reports compare only with an approved report exactly seven days earlier under the same methodology. Missing weeks remain gaps. A new observation and a revision to the same observation period are labeled separately. Publication revisions preserve prior decisions and report editions in the historical export; a withdrawal is logged and does not restore an older edition automatically.
Research runs every Wednesday at 9:11 AM America/New_York, beginning November 18, 2026. If a new assessment cannot be verified, the last approved score remains visible with its original publication date and a no-new-assessment notice; it is never relabeled as newly updated. First publication, the initial methodology and workflow, and material methodology changes require executive approval. A movement of five or more percentage points requires additional validation and executive review before publication. After initial approval, routine validated reports may be published automatically. Email and social communications are prepared for review, not sent automatically.
Survey margins of error, nonresponse, reporting changes, unequal geographic coverage, and correlations between categories limit interpretation. The model mixes stocks of capacity with operational proxies. It does not currently publish a statistical confidence interval or label small changes statistically significant. Ranking, thresholds, sensitivity analysis, and external research validation must be reviewed before approval. Global supply-chain pressure is a proxy and does not measure every domestic dependency. Incident counts alone do not measure cyber readiness; program guidance alone does not establish operational capability.
Equal indicator weights (5 indicators). Each measure requires at least its stated population or sampling-frame coverage and a verified denominator.
Survey-weighted share of adults reporting emergency supplies set aside; does not establish adequacy or duration.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FEMA National Household Survey
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Survey-weighted share of adults with money set aside for three months of expenses; adults are the unit, not households.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Federal Reserve SHED
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Survey-weighted share of adults who know their evacuation routes.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FEMA National Household Survey
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Share of residents with independently verified access to at least 3 days of potable emergency water at 1 gallon per person per day; sampling frame must include private wells.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Survey-weighted share of adults with a plan to contact family members in an emergency.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FEMA National Household Survey
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Equal indicator weights (4 indicators). Each measure requires at least its stated population or sampling-frame coverage and a verified denominator.
National customer-weighted any-method SAIDI including major events, minutes/customer/year; maintain same reporting universe and document missing utilities.
Unit: minutes/customer/year · Direction: lower is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 1440 · Score 100: 0 · Valid raw range: 0–525600 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: EIA Electric Power Annual reliability table
Proposed policy anchors: zero to 24 cumulative outage hours annually; not an engineering safety cutoff.
US distillate stocks divided by trailing 4-week average daily product supplied, days; retain both series vintages and exact aggregation code.
Unit: days · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 10 · Score 100: 40 · Valid raw range: 0–365 · Maximum age: 21 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: weekly · Source: Energy Information Administration
Proposed policy anchors: 10 to 40 days of stock cover. Seasonal and regional shortages can be obscured.
Share of nationally enumerated critical facilities passing a documented 72-hour backup-power exercise in the prior 12 months.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Share of US electricity customers in planning regions meeting their published reserve-margin target; use each region target, not a single invented national margin.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Equal indicator weights (4 indicators). Each measure requires at least its stated population or sampling-frame coverage and a verified denominator.
Survey-weighted adults able and willing to cover a hypothetical $400 expense with cash or equivalent, including a credit card paid at the next statement; not savings alone.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Federal Reserve SHED
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
BLS LNS14000000 seasonally adjusted U-3, civilian noninstitutional population age 16+; labor-force denominator.
Unit: percent · Direction: lower is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 12 · Score 100: 3 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 75 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: monthly · Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Proposed stress anchors: 3% to 12% unemployment; not a full-employment estimate.
Absolute deviation of 12-month CPI-U inflation from 2%; compute 100*(CPI_t/CPI_t-12 - 1), then abs(rate-2). CPI series CUUR0000SA0, NSA.
Unit: percentage_points · Direction: lower is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 8 · Score 100: 0 · Valid raw range: 0–1000 · Maximum age: 75 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: monthly · Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Proposed stability anchor centered on 2% CPI inflation; not the Federal Reserve PCE target. Both deflation and high inflation are penalized.
100 minus survey-weighted share of adults not paying all prior-month bills; retain original source value and transformation.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Federal Reserve SHED
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Equal indicator weights (4 indicators). Each measure requires at least its stated population or sampling-frame coverage and a verified denominator.
100 minus percent of national bridge deck area classified poor in the FHWA NBI; use denominator deck area, not structure counts.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FHWA National Bridge Inventory
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Resident-weighted share served without health-based drinking-water violations during the observation year; private-well residents must be covered or explicit missing population recorded.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Share of population served by critical telecommunications routes with independently tested redundant backhaul and backup power.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Customer-weighted share of electric distribution systems demonstrating restoration of prioritized critical loads within locally predeclared exercise targets in the prior year.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Equal indicator weights (4 indicators). Each measure requires at least its stated population or sampling-frame coverage and a verified denominator.
NY Fed GSCPI monthly value in standard deviations; global pressure proxy, not a direct US preparedness capacity measure.
Unit: standard_deviations · Direction: lower is better · Scope: GLOBAL_PROXY_US
Score 0: 4 · Score 100: -1 · Valid raw range: -20–20 · Maximum age: 75 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: monthly · Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York GSCPI
Proposed stress anchors -1 to +4 standard deviations; low pressure does not prove spare capacity.
Population-weighted share of food distribution service areas passing a documented 7-day continuity exercise within the last year.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Share of nationally enumerated essential freight lanes with tested alternate routes and contracted replacement capacity within 72 hours.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Share of item-region-days without stockouts for a preregistered basket of food, potable water, critical medicines and hygiene goods over a quarter; fixed basket weights and national sampling frame.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 150 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: quarterly · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Equal indicator weights (4 indicators). Each measure requires at least its stated population or sampling-frame coverage and a verified denominator.
Population-weighted share of hospital service areas meeting predeclared staffed-bed and transfer surge targets in a documented annual exercise; staffed capacity, not licensed beds.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: ASPR Hospital Preparedness Program
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Population-weighted share of EMS service areas meeting predeclared staffing, transport and essential-supply targets during an annual exercise.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
100 minus share of adults forgoing medical care because of cost in the preceding 12 months; financial access proxy.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Federal Reserve SHED
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Population-weighted share of jurisdictions meeting predeclared laboratory, surveillance and dispensing targets in audited annual PHEP exercises.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: CDC Public Health Emergency Preparedness
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Equal indicator weights (4 indicators). Each measure requires at least its stated population or sampling-frame coverage and a verified denominator.
Population-weighted share of local jurisdictions with an updated all-hazards plan and completed annual exercise covering disability and transport-access needs.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FEMA THIRA and Stakeholder Preparedness Review
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Population-weighted share of jurisdictions demonstrating their published local response targets in exercises; target difficulty must be harmonized before comparison.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FEMA THIRA and Stakeholder Preparedness Review
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Survey-weighted adults volunteering to help their community prepare; participation is a proxy, not measured volunteer deployment capacity.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FEMA National Household Survey
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Survey-weighted adults participating in an emergency drill.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FEMA National Household Survey
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Equal indicator weights (4 indicators). Each measure requires at least its stated population or sampling-frame coverage and a verified denominator.
Share of nationally representative critical operators that restore critical service within predeclared recovery objectives in an annual independent ransomware exercise.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Share of in-scope known-exploited vulnerable asset instances remediated by the applicable deadline in a representative critical-operator audit; not the number of KEV entries.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 150 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: quarterly · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Percent of monitored critical-service customer-hours without disruption attributable to verified cyber incidents; include zero-incident reporters and reporting coverage.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 150 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: quarterly · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Population-weighted share of jurisdictions passing an annual interoperable communications exercise under commercial-network outage conditions.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Equal indicator weights (4 indicators). Each measure requires at least its stated population or sampling-frame coverage and a verified denominator.
Share of nationally required typed response resource units that are staffed, equipped, exercised and available within predeclared deployment targets; denominator from an agreed scenario set.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FEMA THIRA and Stakeholder Preparedness Review
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Population-weighted share of jurisdictions passing an annual recovery exercise for essential-service restoration, including finance and temporary housing targets.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FEMA THIRA and Stakeholder Preparedness Review
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Population-weighted share of at-risk evacuation zones meeting scenario-specific clearance targets in validated exercises or calibrated simulations, including people without vehicles.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: Required national or representative operational audit
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Population-weighted share of jurisdictions meeting mutual-aid coordination and resource-request targets in a documented multi-jurisdiction exercise.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FEMA THIRA and Stakeholder Preparedness Review
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Equal indicator weights (3 indicators). Each measure requires at least its stated population or sampling-frame coverage and a verified denominator.
Survey-weighted adults aware of disaster preparedness information, using the exact published questionnaire definition.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FEMA National Household Survey
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Survey-weighted adults meeting the published preparedness-efficacy definition; exact response categories must be retained.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FEMA National Household Survey
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
Survey-weighted adults reporting preparedness for less than or more than one year; sum only mutually exclusive responses; self-perception, not verified capability.
Unit: percent · Direction: higher is better · Scope: US_50_DC
Score 0: 0 · Score 100: 100 · Valid raw range: 0–100 · Maximum age: 550 days · Minimum coverage: 95%
Frequency: annual · Source: FEMA National Household Survey
Sky Fall policy anchor: 0% attainment to 100% attainment; not an official safety standard.
These are documented source candidates and acquisition requirements, not a claim that every dataset is available or verified. Source inventory reviewed November 11, 2026.
| Source | Update frequency and definition | Acquisition status |
|---|---|---|
| FEMA National Household Survey | Annual; verify survey wording and weighting for each wave. | primary document located; manual extraction required |
| Federal Reserve SHED | Annual survey; latest verified wave October 2025, report May 2026. | collector implemented for two 2025 measures |
| Bureau of Labor Statistics | Monthly; revisions possible; release dates require release-calendar verification. | API collector implemented; candidates require review |
| Energy Information Administration | Weekly petroleum; annual reliability; series must be pinned before ingestion. | manual import supported; series mapping outstanding |
| EIA Electric Power Annual reliability table | Annual; any-method, all-events SAIDI only. | manual import supported; extraction outstanding |
| FHWA National Bridge Inventory | Annual; deck-area weighting; do not substitute bridge counts. | manual import supported; aggregation outstanding |
| Federal Reserve Bank of New York GSCPI | Monthly; global proxy, not an official Federal Reserve estimate. | manual import supported; pinned vintage needed |
| CDC Public Health Emergency Preparedness | Annual program reporting; national performance denominator not yet verified. | data procurement required |
| ASPR Hospital Preparedness Program | Annual program reporting; guidance is not observed performance. | data procurement required |
| FEMA THIRA and Stakeholder Preparedness Review | Annual SPR, three-year THIRA; comparable national denominator required. | data procurement required; qualitative reports cannot supply scores |
| Census Community Resilience Estimates | Context only; social vulnerability is not demonstrated response capacity. | context only |
| CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities | Event-driven; catalog counts are context, not national patch compliance. | context only; direct retrieval returned 403 during research |
| Required national or representative operational audit | Annual unless otherwise specified. A named source, sampling frame and independent evidence are required. | no verified national dataset; procurement required |
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