SKY FALL INSTITUTE / NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE PRODUCT

The National
Readiness Index.

How prepared is America today? A transparent assessment of the systems, communities, and households that help the nation withstand disruption.

01 / CURRENT NATIONAL SCORE

Assessment in Progress

First Verified Report Coming Soon

No verified score or weekly comparison yet.

Previous week
Not yet available
Most recent verified publication
No verified publication yet
Scale
0–100% · Higher means stronger readiness

This is a readiness benchmark, not a prediction or the probability of surviving a crisis. A missing score is not a score of zero.

What this week’s score means.

02 / THE ASSESSMENT

The inaugural assessment is undergoing evidence and methodology review. There is not enough verified evidence to publish a national score.

Strongest areas

No national ranking is established. Strengths will be identified from approved category results.

Significant vulnerabilities

Missing evidence limits what can be concluded. It does not establish that a particular system is unprepared.

Why the score changed.

03 / FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE

Weekly change requires two approved, comparable reports exactly seven days apart. No increase or decline can yet be reported.

New observations measure a later period. Source revisions change a previously reported period. Contributions explain the arithmetic change; they do not prove causation or statistical significance.

Ten dimensions of readiness.

04 / THE WEIGHTED MODEL

Select a category to see what it measures. Weights total 100%. Empty bars indicate pending verification.

Household Readiness15% OF NATIONAL INDEXAwaiting verification

Each of the 5 indicators has equal weight within this category. A score appears only when the entire weekly report is verified and approved.

  • Emergency supplies — Survey-weighted share of adults reporting emergency supplies set aside; does not establish adequacy or duration.
  • Three-month savings buffer — Survey-weighted share of adults with money set aside for three months of expenses; adults are the unit, not households.
  • Evacuation route knowledge — Survey-weighted share of adults who know their evacuation routes.
  • Emergency water provision — Share of residents with independently verified access to at least 3 days of potable emergency water at 1 gallon per person per day; sampling frame must include private wells.
  • Family contact plan — Survey-weighted share of adults with a plan to contact family members in an emergency.
Review thresholds and source requirements →
Energy and Fuel Readiness12% OF NATIONAL INDEXAwaiting verification

Each of the 4 indicators has equal weight within this category. A score appears only when the entire weekly report is verified and approved.

  • Electricity interruption duration — National customer-weighted any-method SAIDI including major events, minutes/customer/year; maintain same reporting universe and document missing utilities.
  • Distillate fuel buffer — US distillate stocks divided by trailing 4-week average daily product supplied, days; retain both series vintages and exact aggregation code.
  • Tested critical-site backup power — Share of nationally enumerated critical facilities passing a documented 72-hour backup-power exercise in the prior 12 months.
  • Adequate regional capacity — Share of US electricity customers in planning regions meeting their published reserve-margin target; use each region target, not a single invented national margin.
Review thresholds and source requirements →
Economic Resilience12% OF NATIONAL INDEXAwaiting verification

Each of the 4 indicators has equal weight within this category. A score appears only when the entire weekly report is verified and approved.

  • Small financial emergency coverage — Survey-weighted adults able and willing to cover a hypothetical $400 expense with cash or equivalent, including a credit card paid at the next statement; not savings alone.
  • Unemployment rate — BLS LNS14000000 seasonally adjusted U-3, civilian noninstitutional population age 16+; labor-force denominator.
  • Inflation pressure — Absolute deviation of 12-month CPI-U inflation from 2%; compute 100*(CPI_t/CPI_t-12 - 1), then abs(rate-2). CPI series CUUR0000SA0, NSA.
  • Current bills paid — 100 minus survey-weighted share of adults not paying all prior-month bills; retain original source value and transformation.
Review thresholds and source requirements →
Infrastructure Reliability12% OF NATIONAL INDEXAwaiting verification

Each of the 4 indicators has equal weight within this category. A score appears only when the entire weekly report is verified and approved.

  • Bridge condition — 100 minus percent of national bridge deck area classified poor in the FHWA NBI; use denominator deck area, not structure counts.
  • Reliable drinking water — Resident-weighted share served without health-based drinking-water violations during the observation year; private-well residents must be covered or explicit missing population recorded.
  • Tested network redundancy — Share of population served by critical telecommunications routes with independently tested redundant backhaul and backup power.
  • Grid restoration capability — Customer-weighted share of electric distribution systems demonstrating restoration of prioritized critical loads within locally predeclared exercise targets in the prior year.
Review thresholds and source requirements →
Supply Chain Resilience10% OF NATIONAL INDEXAwaiting verification

Each of the 4 indicators has equal weight within this category. A score appears only when the entire weekly report is verified and approved.

  • Supply-chain pressure — NY Fed GSCPI monthly value in standard deviations; global pressure proxy, not a direct US preparedness capacity measure.
  • Food distribution continuity — Population-weighted share of food distribution service areas passing a documented 7-day continuity exercise within the last year.
  • Freight contingency capacity — Share of nationally enumerated essential freight lanes with tested alternate routes and contracted replacement capacity within 72 hours.
  • Essential goods availability — Share of item-region-days without stockouts for a preregistered basket of food, potable water, critical medicines and hygiene goods over a quarter; fixed basket weights and national sampling frame.
Review thresholds and source requirements →
Healthcare Readiness10% OF NATIONAL INDEXAwaiting verification

Each of the 4 indicators has equal weight within this category. A score appears only when the entire weekly report is verified and approved.

  • Demonstrated hospital surge — Population-weighted share of hospital service areas meeting predeclared staffed-bed and transfer surge targets in a documented annual exercise; staffed capacity, not licensed beds.
  • Emergency medical resources — Population-weighted share of EMS service areas meeting predeclared staffing, transport and essential-supply targets during an annual exercise.
  • Affordable healthcare access — 100 minus share of adults forgoing medical care because of cost in the preceding 12 months; financial access proxy.
  • Public health response capability — Population-weighted share of jurisdictions meeting predeclared laboratory, surveillance and dispensing targets in audited annual PHEP exercises.
Review thresholds and source requirements →
Community Preparedness10% OF NATIONAL INDEXAwaiting verification

Each of the 4 indicators has equal weight within this category. A score appears only when the entire weekly report is verified and approved.

  • Exercised local emergency plans — Population-weighted share of local jurisdictions with an updated all-hazards plan and completed annual exercise covering disability and transport-access needs.
  • Local response capability — Population-weighted share of jurisdictions demonstrating their published local response targets in exercises; target difficulty must be harmonized before comparison.
  • Preparedness volunteer participation — Survey-weighted adults volunteering to help their community prepare; participation is a proxy, not measured volunteer deployment capacity.
  • Public preparedness drills — Survey-weighted adults participating in an emergency drill.
Review thresholds and source requirements →
Cybersecurity and Communications8% OF NATIONAL INDEXAwaiting verification

Each of the 4 indicators has equal weight within this category. A score appears only when the entire weekly report is verified and approved.

  • Cyber recovery capability — Share of nationally representative critical operators that restore critical service within predeclared recovery objectives in an annual independent ransomware exercise.
  • Exploited-vulnerability remediation — Share of in-scope known-exploited vulnerable asset instances remediated by the applicable deadline in a representative critical-operator audit; not the number of KEV entries.
  • Cyber service continuity — Percent of monitored critical-service customer-hours without disruption attributable to verified cyber incidents; include zero-incident reporters and reporting coverage.
  • Interoperable emergency communications — Population-weighted share of jurisdictions passing an annual interoperable communications exercise under commercial-network outage conditions.
Review thresholds and source requirements →
Disaster Response Capacity7% OF NATIONAL INDEXAwaiting verification

Each of the 4 indicators has equal weight within this category. A score appears only when the entire weekly report is verified and approved.

  • Deployable response resources — Share of nationally required typed response resource units that are staffed, equipped, exercised and available within predeclared deployment targets; denominator from an agreed scenario set.
  • Recovery capability — Population-weighted share of jurisdictions passing an annual recovery exercise for essential-service restoration, including finance and temporary housing targets.
  • Evacuation system capability — Population-weighted share of at-risk evacuation zones meeting scenario-specific clearance targets in validated exercises or calibrated simulations, including people without vehicles.
  • Response coordination — Population-weighted share of jurisdictions meeting mutual-aid coordination and resource-request targets in a documented multi-jurisdiction exercise.
Review thresholds and source requirements →
Public Preparedness Confidence4% OF NATIONAL INDEXAwaiting verification

Each of the 3 indicators has equal weight within this category. A score appears only when the entire weekly report is verified and approved.

  • Preparedness information awareness — Survey-weighted adults aware of disaster preparedness information, using the exact published questionnaire definition.
  • Preparedness efficacy — Survey-weighted adults meeting the published preparedness-efficacy definition; exact response categories must be retained.
  • Perceived preparedness — Survey-weighted adults reporting preparedness for less than or more than one year; sum only mutually exclusive responses; self-perception, not verified capability.
Review thresholds and source requirements →

A record you can examine.

05 / NATIONAL READINESS HISTORY

Weekly approved reports only. Missing weeks remain gaps; changes in methodology start a new line segment.

History starts with evidence.

The first approved weekly report will establish the baseline. No artificial historical data is used.

Publication and revision log

No approved publications or historical revisions yet.

What Americans should do now.

06 / PRACTICAL PREPARATION

While the assessment is pending, these are general preparedness actions—not findings from a national score. Follow local emergency instructions when an incident occurs.

  1. Households · Make a shared plan. Agree on how to contact one another and where to meet if normal routines are disrupted. Use the family planning tools.
  2. Households · Review your essentials. Check emergency supplies and the accessibility needs of everyone in your household. Cal OES preparedness guidance.
  3. Businesses · Identify critical dependencies. List essential work, utilities, suppliers, and the people responsible for keeping operations going. Cal OES continuity guidance.
  4. Businesses · Check communications and backups. Review employee contact information and confirm that essential data is backed up away from the primary site. Cal OES business guidance.
  5. Community leaders · Build local connections. Discuss response training and volunteer opportunities with local emergency management, and plan support for neighbors who may need assistance. CDC community guidance.

Evidence you can inspect.

07 / RESEARCH & METHODOLOGY

One score. Published rules.

Forty indicators feed ten weighted categories. Every score is calculated from documented thresholds and source observations. Final scores are rounded to one decimal place.

Read the full methodology →

Verification before publication.

Missing, stale, or unverified evidence blocks the national score. Publication also requires methodology approval and a recorded weekly editorial decision.

Latest public JSON · Approved history JSON · Scoring rules JSON

Methodology 1.0.0-candidate.1 is a candidate specification awaiting research approval. Annual and monthly observations are not presented as new weekly measurements. No government agency endorses this index.

08 / THE WEEKLY READINESS BRIEFING

KNOW WHAT’S
COMING.

Receive America’s National Readiness Index every Wednesday, along with the intelligence and practical guidance needed to protect your family, business, and community.

The first edition will follow verification and approval of the inaugural report.

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